Space Tourism Gets Nearer

I noticed that Virgin Galactic will be making a presentation at the Front End of Innovation Europe conference in Berlin in March 2011 (good conference to go to if you are into innovation and a great city to visit).  I think commercial spaceflight is clearly a major innovation, both in technology (SpaceShipTwo) and business model (very expensive, risky flights).  The interesting question that popped into my mind is, while they claim to have lots of willing individuals signed up for the first flights, can it be  a sustainable long-term business for them?  I think the answer lies in the basic principles of business and innovation but let's divide it into the two steps—introduction to the market and growth to sustainable scale.  As it happens I presented some data on space tourism in my book (sourced with permission from Devinney, Crouch and Louviere—good mates from Australia—and entitled Going where no tourist has gone before, Sydney: Future Choice Initiative, 2006).  That data suggests there are indeed high income or asset rich, relatively young, individuals who like risky activities, own risky “toys” and would pay those kind of prices for a flight. Moreover, the asset-rich segment prefers sub-orbital flights, fitting right into Virgin's plans.  So it looks like initial acceptance is not an issue.  But can Virgin deliver so that these individuals have a great experience and spread the word and can it be sustainable once the rich segment is exhausted?  Time will tell on the experience. Virgin are pretty good at service, and SpaceShipTwo is designed to maximize the visual experience.  So let's say the first flyers report good things and experience no problems.  Sustainability will then depend on the willingness of others to follow in their footsteps and, as always, competition.   Willingness to follow will partly depend on Virgin's ability to get the message out to the world once the initial press interest has waned and, of course, price.  Can Virgin scale their model to get the price down?  Not being a space scientist, I don't know the answer to that but most technologies do fall in cost and price over time (and Virgin is not the hide-bound NASA).  Competition is more tricky perhaps.  If space tourism is attractive over the long-term (rather than a fad) Virgin will attract competition.  And we know that most pioneers find it hard to sustain leadership against second and third movers, for many reasons, but mostly because they hang on to their initial technology too long.  To keep leadership the pioneer needs to continue to innovate (SpaceShipThree and Four perhaps).  So the odds suggest Virgin will fall by the wayside, to be replaced by a better alternative.  But maybe by then this doesn't matter, space tourism will be a sustainable industry and Virgin will go down in history as the initiator.  Or they will renew themselves, invent the next generation of technology and become synonymous with space travel in the way a very few companies achieve.  Either way it promises to be an exciting ride and students of innovation should be watching it carefully.

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Do you remember "The Jetsons" cartoons? It's now 2012, and the future our ancestors had envisioned still has yet to come. I can't wait until we do have commercial space flights.

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I believe space tourism is still at its drawing board. We haven't received a go-signal from NASA or any space-related agency for such dream.